My NECVA Seeding Predictions! Part 2

EIGHTH SEED.

Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, New Paltz, MIT, Elms, Baruch

This is where it gets tricky. Let's look at head-to-head:

New Paltz: 4-1 (wins versus MIT, Emmanuel Twice, Medaille, loss to Baruch)

MIT: 4-2 (wins versus Emmanuel, Elms twice, Baruch, losses to New Paltz and Elms)

Medaille: 1-1 (win versus Baruch, loss vs. New Paltz)

Emmanuel: 2-3 (wins versus Elms* and Baruch, losses to MIT and twice to New Paltz)

Baruch: 2-3 (wins vs. Elms and New Paltz, losses to Emmanuel, Medaille, and MIT).

Elms: 1-4 (win vs. MIT, losses to MIT twice, Emmanuel, and Baruch)



hmmm... Records vs. top 7 seeds?

Elms: 3-5

Baruch: 1-4

MIT: 1-5

Emmanuel: 1-6

Medaille: 1-6

New Paltz: 1-6

And the remaining NECVA tournament field? (Hunter, PBU, EMU)

Baruch: 3-1

MIT: 1-0

Medaille: 2-2

Emmanuel: 1-1

Elms: 0-2

New Paltz: 0-2

Total records vs. NECVA Field:

MIT: 6-7

New Paltz: 5-9

Baruch: 6-8

Medaille: 4-9

Elms: 4-11

Emmanuel: 4-10

Losses vs. NECVA teams not in tournament:

New Paltz: 0

Baruch: 0

Elms: 0

MIT: 1

Emmanuel: 2

Medaille: 1

Enough Stats!

Prediction: Baruch.

Why do I say Baruch? Medaille, Emmanuel, and MIT had losses to non-tournament NECVA teams. Baruch defeated the other two teams that went undefeated against those teams. Baruch has a better total record against the 16-team field than the other 2 teams. They also are the only conference champion of the group. However, I do feel they'll be losing in the first round to...

NINTH SEED.

Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, New Paltz, Elms, MIT, Hunter

Prediction: Elms.

Elms started the season 2-7. Sequiel, the NECC Freshman of the Year and most probable NECVA New England Freshman of the Year (Assuming Gimello takes the NECVA Freshman of the Year, Sequiel would be a runner-up), joined halfway through that stint. Since then, the team has started to gel, and as far as I'm concerned, they are the sleeper team of the tournament. They've won 9 of their last 10 (the last loss coming to Baruch - interesting!), but they looked extremely sharp this weekend, and I believe they have a lot of positive momentum going into Friday.

TENTH SEED.

Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, New Paltz, MIT, Hunter

Prediction: New Paltz.

I really wanted to put Medaille here... I really did. However, I just couldn't justify putting New Paltz below anyone else. A loss to Hunter, a loss to PBU. Those are the only "blemishes" on the record. The other losses: D-I Sacred Heart, Vassar twice, Newbury, Nazareth, UC-Santa Cruz, Stevens, Ramapo, Baruch, D-II East Stroudsburg. New Paltz has a SMALL setter, but they run a somewhat complex offense, the freshman middle has been doing very well, and Jake Moore has been a great leader to the team. Could Medaille get this seed for political reasons? Absolutely. However, I believe New Paltz earned this spot.

ELEVENTH SEED.

Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, MIT, Hunter

Prediction: MIT.

(Note: I beleive they will be rated 11th, but bumped to 12th in order to avoid a first-round matchup against Endicott.)

MIT has quietly won 19 of their last 21, defeating Baruch, Elms, Newbury, and Emmanuel in the process. The losses came to D-I Harvard and Endicott. Early losses to Newbury and Elms tarnished their conference record, but they have been playing very good ball, and will look to show that the AQ for hosting is not the only reason they're here.

TWELVTH SEED.

Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, Hunter

Prediction: Emmanuel.

(Note: Due to the previous statement regarding MIT, Emmanuel would move to 11th to play Endicott).

They are a peaks and valleys team, but you can't deny they've had some quality wins. Elms, Baruch, Hunter, and Newbury have all dropped matches to this team. A loss to NJCU does make me feel like they may end up 15th if Medaille gets the 12, but Medaille's loss to Stevenson should call this a wash as far as I'm concerned. Both sides are justifiable, but I think looking at how both teams have played the past 2 months, Emmanuel deserves the nod.

THIRTEENTH SEED.

Candidates: Medaille, Hunter

Prediction: Medaille

Boy do they know how to wreck a seeding process. Wins early in the season against Baruch, Endicott, MSOE, and Hunter. A 4-set winner against a re-building Quincy. The win against EMU to get the AQ. Other than that, they have 9 wins against 5 teams with a combined record of 29-92. Coto's my boy, but EMU picked a bad time to get a team squeak a win by them...

FOURTEENTH SEED.

Candidates: Philly Bible, EMU, Hunter

Prediction: Philly Bible

How did PBU draw Nazareth first round of the conference tournament? It doesn't make sense to me... anyways, had they gotten the AQ, they'd be looking at a seeding between 7-9, but instead they'll have their work cut out for them this time around. Perhaps the volleyball gods are making up for the #2 seed they recieved last year...

FIFTEENTH SEED.

Candidates: EMU, Hunter

Prediction: EMU.

(Note: Hunter would flip-flop with them to avoid a Nazareth-EMU match-up).

EMU upset Philly Bible last year to make a surprise run to the semi-finals as a 10 seed, but I don't know if they'll be able to repeat.. Coto is a phenominal middle, they have some young guns, but they haven't seemed to replace the leadership that a few of their graduates from last year brought to the table.

SIXTEENTH SEED.

Prediction: Hunter.

Hunter can be a fun team to watch, but they are really hurting after losing Kowalski/Oliviera to Baruch. A flashy team with hints of greatness, but their lack of size ends up getting the best of them most of the time.

FINAL RANKINGS:

1) Rivier
2) Nazareth
3) Ramapo
4) Stevens
5) Vassar
6) Endicott
7) Newbury
8) Baruch
9) Elms
10) New Paltz
11) Emmanuel
12) MIT
13) Medaille
14) PBU
15) Hunter
16) EMU

This is how I THINK it should go. Some great stories if this was the case would be Ramapo/PBU as PBU recently defeated Ramapo, a potential Newbury/Nazareth 2nd round re-match after last year's 5-set thriller, and Baruch/Elms being a tougher 2nd round opponent than Rivier probably prefers to face.

How I could see politics shifting things:

1) Rivier
2) Nazareth
3) Ramapo
4) Stevens
5) Vassar
6) Endicott
7) Newbury
8) Medaille
9) Elms
10) Baruch
11) PBU
12) MIT
13) EMU
14) New Paltz
15) Emmanuel
16) Hunter

After the 6, all is fair game. We shall see how it plays out tomorrow morning at 9 AM.

Time to do some other things. Quick note: I would appreciate to hear feedback about the blog. Things you'd like me to write about, questions you may have, or just overall comments about it. (Follwers would be nice too, I'd love to know the actual amount of people that visit the blog, even if it's only 8 or 9!)