This post is strictly for the NECVA enthusiast. Attention to detail will be borderline-tedious, and it may prove to be my longest post yet. Before we begin, I will say this: It is the most wide-open field this tournament has ever seen. There are plenty of teams in the 10-16 range that no one wants to play first round. I beleive there will be upsets left and right, and no team is immune to them.
So what are the rules with seedings? 5 sub-conferences, top 2 from each make it, MIT is in automatically as the host, and 5 at-large bids are awarded. A 2 seed from their conference can't be higher than the 1, and an At-large cannot be higher than the 2 AQ's from their conference. However, an At-large in one conference is not bound to be lower than any seed in any other conference. Confused? Fair enough. Let's continue regardless.
What do we know for sure? Thanks to a certain NECVA coach that posts on Volleytalk for making this a copy/paste for me so I can save time.
DIVISIONAL AUTOMATIC BIDS:
CUNYAC: 1. Baruch; 2. Hunter (finalist in division tourney)
GNAC: 1. Rivier; 2. Emmanuel (finalist in division tourney)
METRO: 1. Ramapo; 2. Stevens (finished 1 and 2 in division)
NEW ENGLAND: 1. Endicott; 2. Newbury (finished 1 and 2 in division - Beat out Elms for 2nd place because of who they beat in division)
WESTERN: 1. Nazareth; 2. Medaille (division tournament. Medaille was a bubble team, but earned the AQ because of finish in tourney)
MIT gets an at-large for hosting the tournament, so that leaves 5 teams getting an At-large.
Here are the bubble teams (not in any ranking order):
PBU
EMU
Vassar
New Paltz
Lasell
NJCU
Elms
Let's begin with my predictions for At-Large's, although I will wait to go into detail on them until I seed them in order to save a bit of time.
My "sure things"
PBU
Vassar
EMU
Elms
My "99% sure thing"
New Paltz.
Wow, not too difficult! Unfortunately, this is where the simplicity ends. Without further Adieu, let's begin!
FIRST SEED.
Candidates: Rivier, Nazareth, Ramapo, Endicott, Baruch
Prediction: Rivier.
Rivier is 31-1. This is the only "If I was forced to choose one thing that was for CERTAIN regarding seedings and it was a life or death situation" choice of the tournament. One 5-set loss early in the season at Carthage ruined the perfect season, but I think they'll be fine dealing with it. Weapons at every position, a great setter, phenominal coach... This team earned it. I do have my cynical views regarding how they'll fare at the tournament, but that will be discussed when seedings officially come out and I do a predictions blog.
SECOND SEED.
Candidates: Emmanuel, Nazareth, Ramapo, Endicott, Baruch
Prediction: Nazareth.
Nazareth has quietly established themselves as a force this season. Although the departure of Maving was going to leave a wound, freshman Billy Gimello has provided quite the band-aid, and led by All-American setter Leahy, this team could argue that they're actually the team to beat. Their only losses: First match of the season versus Division I St. Francis, swept by Stevens when Stevens was crushing EVERYONE, a five-set loss to UC Santa Cruz, and a 4-set loss to Vassar. Since then, they've won 8 in a row, defeating Ramapo, Quincy, NYU, PBU twice, Carthage, Medaille, and MSOE. None of those teams are pushovers. Although they'll get the two, the distance between Rivier and Nazareth isn't much.
THIRD SEED.
Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, Ramapo, Endicott, Baruch
Prediction: Ramapo
I was interested to see if Ramapo would rise to the occasion or end up putting it on cruise control after being awarded the Molten's and an automatic bid to them, but it hasn't shown any negative side-effects up to this point. I've played against them early in the season as well as watched them at the Endicott tournament, and this team has the most energy out of all of the teams in the field. A deep, LOUD bench, one of the most under-rated players in the country with Shane Donahue, this team won a conference that included powerhouses Stevens and Vassar. Although I think Stevens would have won the conference had these two opponents met earlier in the season, it's all about how you finish, and Ramapo did a hell of a job of that by beating New Paltz/Vassar/Stevens in a one-week span. Being swept late in the season by Philly Bible raises an eyebrow, but it shouldn't be a big enough blemish to award this seed to any of the four candidates, especially since Ramapo defeated all of them during the season.
FOURTH SEED.
Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, Stevens, Endicott, Baruch
Prediction: Stevens.
I think Stevens is a perfect example on why a team should never accept the "oh well, we've got a better shot next year anyways" mentality. An early exit last year at the hands of Ramapo led people like me to believe that Stevens would be a monster with a huge chip on its shoulder this year, led by 3 All-American caliber players Cranford, Bocchichio, and Trinsey. Which is exactly how they started the season. However, Trinsey's got a bad shoulder (which I hear is important for hitters taking 30-40 attacks a match, and his workload only got heavier when Bocchichio ended up suffering a freak injury mid-way through the season.
Ever since then, this team has not been the same. I would still put them above the rest as their only losses came from D-I Harvard, a 5-setter against New Paltz where Trinsey/Bocchichio didn't play, a loss to Ramapo, and a 5-setter against D-II Mount Olive. However, I don't believe they have the same intimidation factor they would have had if the Bocchichio injury didn't take place.
Perhaps this turns out to be good for them, with teams sleeping on them a bit more than they would have if they annihilated everyone during the regular season. I still wouldn't want to play them early if I was a lower seed.
FIFTH SEED.
Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, Vassar, New Paltz, Endicott, Baruch
Prediction: Vassar
My first hesitant pick comes at the 5 seed, thanks to Endicott sweeping Vassar at Vassar this weekend, as well as Baruch having a stronger season than many people realize. However, I just can't put Endicott over Vassar with the quality of the schedule we're looking at here.
Vassar's 7 losses: Newbury in 5, Springfield twice, Stevens, Ramapo, NYU, Endicott.
Some of Vassar's wins: Carthage, Medaille, EMU, UC Santa Cruz, PBU, Elms, Nazareth.
That being said, I feel that Endicott could have received this seed had they not lost to Newbury earlier in the week. I think Vassar's reputation as the former National Championship Runner-up on top of the quality of their wins puts them in the 5 slot.
SIXTH SEED:
Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, New Paltz, Endicott, Baruch
Prediction: Endicott.
I literally was three paragraphs into why I picked Baruch for the six when I doubled back and changed my mind. They may have swept endicott early on, and endicott may have had a couple slip ups against Elms and Newbury recently, but I know Newbury had a great night, and Elms is going to be a sleeper in this tournament without a doubt. Looking at Endicott:
Losses: Baruch/MSOE/Medaille first tournament of season, Stevens, Sacred Heart, Ramapo in 5, Springfield, Harvard, Newbury, Elms, Rivier.
Wins: Carthage, Elms, MIT Twice, Hunter, Newbury, Emmanuel, Vassar.
Baruch's Losses: Medaille, Rivier twice, PBU, King's, MIT, Emmanuel, Ramapo, Stevens.
Which isn't bad. However...
Baruch's Wins: Endicott/MSOE/Carthage at the beginning of the season, Hunter twice, New Paltz, Elms.
They are 33-9, with only 5 wins coming against NECVA-tournament caliber teams, 7 if you count MSOE/Carthage. Other than Endicott and Hunter (and frankly I consider Hunter by default as the 3rd place team in that division wasn't strong), all at-large bids. Therefore, Endicott gets the spot.
SEVENTH SEED.
Candidates: Emmanuel, Medaille, New Paltz, Newbury, Baruch
Prediction: Newbury.
Could we be seeded lower? Absolutely. a 1-10 slump in the middle of the season was absolutely brutal. However, with half the team getting the flu, a couple line-up experimentations, and a few other factors played into this. Although a loss to Elms to finish the regular season stung, a strong victory over Endicott earlier in the week showed that this team still has some fire.
Newbury Losses: Ramapo, Harvard, Endicott, Rivier, Elms twice, MIT, Emmanuel, Cal Baptist, Hope International twice.
Newbury Wins: Hunter, Vassar, Emmanuel, Elms, MIT, New Paltz, Endicott.
Although we've lost our fair share of games, we've also defeated half of the field. Everyone is healthy again, and after our late-season run to the finals last season, there is no doubt that the ability to turn it on is there. Will we be seeded above Baruch? Time will tell.
Taking a break to do some more research, as this is where it gets tricky. Will post the second half later!
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